Forecasting Exercise
You are the supply chain manager for an electronics-manufacturing company. In this assignment, you will use the following data to obtain forecasts for your company through various forecasting techniques.
QuarterForecastActual DemandError
4Q 2008200220
1Q 2009220215
2Q 2009215210
3Q 2009210220
4Q 2009220225
1Q 2010225240
2Q 2010240255
3Q 2010260
4Q 2010270
1Q 2011
Consolidate the results of the following problems in a 2- to 3-page report in a Microsoft Word document. Do not use Microsoft Excel utilities for this assignment.
Using the three quarters moving average, find out the forecasts for 3Q 2010, 4Q 2010, and 1Q 2011.
Compute the forecasts for 3Q 2010, 4Q 2010, and 1Q 2011 using exponential smoothing with a smoothing factor of 0.6.
Compute the forecasts for all quarters of 2010 using the three quarter weighted moving average, with the most recent data weighted at 0.5, the second-most recent data weighted at 0.35, and the third-most recent data weighted at 0.15.
Using the data provided in the above table, explain what forecasting techniques are being used for 2008 and the first two quarters of 2009.
Computed the forecasting error using the exponential smoothing technique.
Computed the forecasting error using the weighted moving average method.
On the basis of your calculations, explain which technique provides the most accurate forecast for your company. Explain your answer with critical reasoning.
Using the APA format, cite the sources you use on a separate page.
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A) Our money supply is fixed by law and can be raised by only a very small percentage each year. B) Our money supply is backed by gold. C) Credit cards are a form of money. D) Money makes an excellent store of value during times of inflation. E) One of the basic jobs of money is a standard of value. 15. The first bankers were A) goldsmiths. B) printers. C) storekeepers. D) innkeepers. E) blacksmiths. 16. Suppose you had no money in your checking account and your bank granted you overdraft privileges. You then went out and charged $20 on your debit card. How much would your bank charge you in fees for using your overdraft privileges? A) 0 B) $5 C) 15 D) 35 E) $50 17. Statement I: John Maynard Keynes called the hoarding of money at very low interest rates a "liquidity trap." Statement II: Since the late 1990s, Japan has been caught in a liquidity trap. A) Statement I is true and statement II is false. B) Statement II is true and statement I is false. C) Both statements are true. D) Both statements are false. 18. Banks can A) create money, but not destroy money. B) destroy money, but not create money. C) create and destroy money. D) neither create nor destroy money. 19. The Federal Open Market Committee is made up of all of the following, except A) the board of governors. B) the chairman of the board of governors. C) the president of the United States. D) the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. E) the presidents of four Federal Reserve Banks other than the New York Bank. 20. The Federal Reserve System A) has regional Federal Reserve Banks that make most of the decisions. B) makes decisions subject to the approval of the President. C) makes its major policy decisions in its Open Market Committee. D) makes decisions subject to the approval of Congress. 21. With economic development comes each of the following, except A) a decline in the birth rate. B) an increase in the stock of capital. C) rising per capita GDP D) a declining wage rate. 22. Our educational standards today. A) are the highest in history. B) are much higher than they were 50 years ago. C) are the same as they were 50 years ago. D) are much lower than they were 50 years ago. 23. Brazil should be classified as a(n) A) very poor LDC. B) middle-rank LDC. C) NIC. D) industrial country. 24. The most important reason for our slow rate of productivity growth over the last three decades (of those listed below) is A) lagging business sales. B) foreign imports. C) our low savings rate. D) high tax rates. 25. Structural unemployment occurs when A) workers have quit one job and are looking for a better one. B) high school graduates enter the labor market every June. C) the business cycle is in a downturn and people are laid off. D) the people without jobs have skills that don't match the available job openings. 26. Unemployment caused by economic decline or recession is called A) frictional unemployment. B) cyclical unemployment. C) natural unemployment. D) necessary unemployment. E) structural unemployment.. 27. The recession of 2001 was caused by A) the events of 9/11. B) a decline in consumer spending. C) a decline in investment spending. D) the war in Iraq. 28. A budget deficit is the A) annual excess of government spending over revenue raised by taxes, fees, and charges. B) shortfall of Social Security collections toward payment of benefits. C) amount by which tax revenues and borrowed funds fall short of government expenditures. D) excess of tax revenues over expenditures. E) amount by which tax revenues exceed borrowed funds. 29. The consumer price index is created by A) calculating the cost of a "basket" of consumer goods typically bought by an American family in any year as a percentage of their cost in a base year. B) the Congressional Budget Office. C) averaging the price increases for all consumer goods in the GDP and adding 100. D) dividing nominal dollar consumer expenditures by base year consumer expenditures. 30. Statement I: When equilibrium GDP and full employment GDP are equal, there is no inflationary gap and no deflationary gap.Statement II: Equilibrium GDP is an ideal goal that can never be attained. A) Statement I is true and statement II is false. B) Statement II is true and statement I is false. C) Both statements are true. D) Both statements are false. 31. When government expenditures in a given year are less than tax receipts, there exists A) a budget deficit. B) public revenue. C) full-employment taxation. D) a budget surplus .32. As price rises, the quantity ______________ rises. A) demanded B) supplied C) demanded and supplied 33. If the MPC were .75, what change in government spending (in billions of dollars) would be required to cause the equilibrium level of GDP to fall by 100? A) A decrease of 25. B) A decrease of 50. C) A decrease of 75. D) A decrease of 100. E) A decrease of 125. (I will send the image) 34. When price is $8 A) quantity demanded is greater than quantity supplied and, therefore, price must fall to get to equilibrium price. B) quantity demanded is greater than quantity supplied and, therefore, price must rise to get to equilibrium price. C) quantity supplied is greater than quantity demanded and, therefore, price must fall to get to equilibrium price. D) quantity supplied is greater than quantity demanded and, therefore, price must rise to get to equilibrium price. 35. Usury is considered the charging of A) higher interest rates than people are willing to pay. B) lower interest rates than people are willing to pay C) unconscionably high interest rates. D) extremely low rates of interest. 36. The present value of a dollar rises as A) the interest rate declines and the number of years you wait for your money declines. B) the interest rate rises and the number of years you wait for your money rises. 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Child poverty is A) much more of a problem in France, Germany, and Japan than it is in the U.S. B) less of a problem in the United States than in Canada, Britain, or Italy. C) more of a problem in Sweden, Denmark, and Ireland than it is in the U.S. D) much more of a problem in the U.S. than in virtually all other industrialized countries. 52. Statement I: Social Security payments help mostly the poor. Statement II: Poverty may be defined as a relative concept and as an absolute concept. A) Statement I is true and statement II is false. B) Statement II is true and statement I is false. C) Both statements are true. D) Both statements are false. 53. Compared to their levels in 1999, the poverty line has ______ and the minimum hourly wage has ________. A) gone up; gone up B) stayed the same; stayed the same C) gone up; stayed the same D) stayed the same; gone up 54. In which year was the poverty rate the lowest? A) 1960 B) 1973 C) 1984 D) 1993 E) 2006 55. Which statement is true? 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